Narrate you would possibly well ignore quantum computing? Narrate again.

“It’s been known for the reason that Nineties that a fats-scale quantum computer might be ready to interrupt a fashion of the crypto systems we depend on for safety,” says Dustin Touchy, chief of Put up Quantum Cryptography (PQC) on the Nationwide Institute for Standards and Technology (NIST) in Maryland.

In 1994, American mathematician Peter Shor developed quantum algorithms to factor integers and solve the discrete logarithm problem. When run on a sufficiently large quantum computer, these algorithms could break all of the public-key crypto systems we currently rely on for privacy. This includes systems such as RSA, Diffie-Hellman, and elliptic curve cryptography — all of which are NIST standards that have been adopted and trusted by governments and organizations worldwide.

While current quantum computers can only run Shor’s algorithms on trivial cases, many experts predict that within five to fifteen years, they will be large enough to break all of today’s public-key cryptographic systems.

Prepare now for the quantum cryptography possibility

To counter the possibility in advance, NIST launched in 2016 an international call for algorithms that will protect data even after large quantum computers become available. After a lengthy selection process, NIST announced its plan to standardize four of the PQC algorithms this summer.

The impact will be felt globally. While NIST standards are developed for use by agencies of the U.S. government, they tend to be adopted by other governments and organizations around the world. Many public and private organizations use these standards and require their partners to do the same.

NIST

Based on Touchy, several countries — including the UK, Germany, France, and the Netherlands — have already announced their intentions to use the four PQC solutions licensed by NIST, and the International Organization for Standardization (ISO) will add them to their list of standards. Furthermore, many of the companies that worked with NIST on the selection process are already preparing to implement the new requirements.

Even before the algorithms are officially licensed this summer, CIOs should begin taking steps. Touchy recommends they start by conducting a cryptographic inventory to identify which public key crypto systems they and their partners use. This isn’t easy, but several vendors are developing tools to assist with that process.

CIOs can also ensure they assign someone to lead the transition and that they have the funding and skilled personnel they need. Organizations can also begin testing the algorithms in their environments and verify that their supply chain partners are doing the same.

Jeff Wong, global chief innovation officer at EY, says even though they’re not yet required to make a change, CIOs can already begin planning to integrate NIST-licensed algorithms into their cybersecurity upgrades. “Companies typically have three-to-four-year cybersecurity upgrade cycles,” he says. “If there’s a possibility quantum computing could crack keys within five years, and your upgrade cycle is three to four years, you need to start taking action in about a year.”

One other thing CIOs should consider is protecting against “store-now, decrypt-later” attacks. Hackers could be collecting encrypted data now that they can decrypt once quantum computers become sufficiently powerful and reliable to run Shor’s algorithms. Some industries are more affected than others, such as healthcare, financial services, and higher education, where medical, financial, and academic data may need to remain secure for a lifetime. But nearly all sectors must address personally identifiable information (PII) that requires indefinite protection.

EY

According to Wong, CIOs should consider securing data in transit to defend against these attacks, particularly for government-related contracts. “Companies may not be discussing it openly,” he says. “But we’re hearing from our contacts in the ecosystem that government contractors and firms in industries including financial services are already planning to encrypt their communications for this very purpose.”

But some organizations in financial services have been very open about getting a head start. “We’re closely monitoring the work of NIST as they standardize PQC protocols,” says Philip Intallura, global head of quantum technologies at HSBC. “Preparing for this new form of cryptography is a core component of HSBC’s quantum program.”

In April 2022, the bank formalized their quantum technologies program with a strong oversight group of in-house PhD scientists to explore opportunities. “As part of our portfolio of work, we look at use cases linked to both security and compute,” says Intallura.

The NIST requirements feature prominently in the security aspect of their work. “We have several use cases in development that will help us understand how PQC could be adopted for specific applications,” he adds. “Given the scalability of PQC, we expect it to play a role in our future cryptography landscape, considering our presence in 62 markets around the world.”

Understand the opportunities

“On the compute aspect, we’re exploring quantum technologies for rising commercial opportunities,” says Itallura. “The forms of models we use in the bank each day are closely matched to the forms of models a quantum computer can handle.” The quantum technologies group at HSBC works with assorted business lines and functions to explore and test real-world use cases including portfolio optimization, quantum machine learning, and financial simulation.

HSBC

Once quantum computer systems are abundant enough for industrial use, they’ll change the nature of competition in financial services and various industries very quickly. Everyday examples of problems that could be solved include distributing electrical energy, finding the most efficient routes in transportation networks, and determining the most efficient mix of allocations in a financial portfolio. Quantum computing can also be used to simulate molecules, an essential method to develop new treatments and catalysts — and for chemistry research and materials science in general.

Based on Ville Kotovirta, lead for the quantum algorithms and software group at the Technical Research Centre (VTT) in Finland, quantum computing could also be used for machine learning (ML), which could affect nearly every industry. ML is a striking example of a use case that will require a hybrid approach. “Because quantum computers can’t handle large amounts of data yet, a supercomputer can store the data and perform some of the operations,” he says.

Data stored on a supercomputer is encoded into quantum information and passed to the quantum machine, which does the processing. Then the circuits are measured to produce the results, which are then translated back into classical data. The supercomputer could perform some post-processing of the output to mitigate errors in the computation.

The two systems also work together to adjust parameters. “There are algorithms known as variational algorithms where you have free parameters in the quantum circuit that can also be optimized using the classical computer,” says Kotovirta. “For example, gate rotations are free and can also be optimized by many repetitions of this process. The circuit is evaluated on the quantum computer and the parameters are adjusted on the classical computer. It takes several repetitions of this back-and-forth to find the optimal settings. As quantum computers grow larger, the optimization task will require more classical processing power.”

Gauge readiness

Kotovirta says that while quantum computing is already readily accessible, so far it has only solved trivial problems. But even in its current state, the market is already over $1 billion, according to IDC. This includes building devices, software for controlling the hardware, cloud services, and application development.

Technical Study Center

“The full world is in rehearsal, studying easy how to make these devices, easy how to assemble applications, and simple how to study them,” says Kotovirta. “Folk are building quantum readiness because as soon as the technology starts offering advantages over classical devices, things will happen very fleet.”

One question CIOs should consider is who should have access to these systems — managers, in-house consultants, or external consultants. “It’s essential to define your use cases, and consider where you might obtain the expertise, whether it’s in-house or through consultants,” Kotovirta adds.

In some sectors, there’s no need to adopt quantum computing immediately, or even begin using, quantum computing right away, so IT leaders can afford to wait until some of the kinks have been ironed out. As CIO of online retailer Companion.co, Troy Hiltbrand finds that while people in retail could take steps to address PQC this year, they’re in no rush to study quantum computing to gain a competitive advantage. Opportunities are less immediate than in industries such as financial services.

Companion.co

Based on Hiltbrand, once quantum computing becomes ready for industry, there needs to be a truly simple interface that allows for its use by even the least technical people in the government sector. “Then this could well rocket into the forefront, much like generative AI has done recently,” he says.