Some distance correct viewed making beneficial properties in EU elections

Mainstream Parties Maintain Majority but Face Challenges

The European Parliament comprises 720 lawmakers elected every five years. Historically, the three main political groups—the EPP, S&D, and Renew Europe—have collaborated to form majorities necessary for passing legislation. Current polling data suggest that while these groups will likely retain their majority status, they may lose some seats to emerging far-right parties.

The EPP, led by European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, is projected to remain the largest group. However, the anticipated gains by far-right parties could complicate the EPP's traditional alliances, especially as it considers how to engage with these new political actors.

Far-Right Parties: Diverse but Increasingly Influential

Far-right parties in the European Parliament are not monolithic. They are primarily divided into two groups: the Identity and Democracy (ID) group and the European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR). The ID group includes parties like France's National Rally, led by Marine Le Pen, and Germany's Alternative for Germany (AfD), which are generally more radical and have shown sympathy towards Russian President Vladimir Putin.

In contrast, the ECR, led by Italy's Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni and her Brothers of Italy party, is more moderate and pro-EU, albeit with conservative and nationalist tendencies. Meloni, who is the lead candidate for her party in the elections, has expressed a desire to unite right-leaning forces to challenge the left but has ruled out any cooperation with pro-Putin factions.

This division within the far-right complicates potential coalitions and limits the possibility of a unified far-right bloc in the European Parliament.

Potential Shifts in Alliances and Political Dynamics

A key question is whether the EPP will open the door to collaboration with the far-right ECR group. Ursula von der Leyen has explicitly ruled out alliances with the more radical ID group due to their pro-Putin stance but has hinted at possible cooperation with the ECR. Such a move would disrupt the traditional three-group coalition that has governed the Parliament for years.

Political analysts suggest that while the existing coalition of the EPP, S&D, and Renew Europe is likely to continue dominating, ad hoc alliances between the EPP and ECR could emerge on specific issues. However, securing a stable majority would still require support from either Renew Europe or the ID group, making the political landscape more complex.

Meloni’s party aims to leverage its increased seat count to influence key EU policies, particularly on migration, and to seek influential positions within the EU institutions.

Policy Priorities and Public Concerns Ahead of the Elections

Contrary to expectations, immigration is not the foremost concern for EU voters in the 2024 elections. According to the EU’s Eurobarometer polling, issues like poverty, unemployment, healthcare, and defense and security rank higher among voters’ priorities.

This shift in voter concerns may influence the policy focus of both mainstream and far-right parties. While far-right groups have traditionally capitalized on anti-immigration sentiments, their growing influence may now hinge on broader socio-economic issues and EU governance debates.

Moreover, the political balance resulting from the elections will determine appointments to the EU’s top positions, including the heads of the European Commission, European Council, and European Parliament, shaping the bloc’s direction for years to come.

Challenges to Far-Right Unity and Influence

Despite their gains, a merger between the two main far-right groups—the ECR and ID—is unlikely due to fundamental ideological differences. The ECR includes parties that have participated in national governments and generally support the EU project, whereas the ID group is more Eurosceptic and pro-Putin.

Another factor complicating far-right cohesion is the stance of parties like Hungary’s Fidesz, led by Viktor Orban, who is notably close to Putin. Whether Fidesz will align with the ECR remains uncertain and could influence the far-right’s overall strategy.

These internal divisions limit the far-right’s ability to form a consolidated front, thereby affecting their capacity to shape EU-wide policies decisively.

What this means

The 2024 EU elections mark a significant moment in the bloc’s political evolution, with far-right parties expanding their footprint in the European Parliament. While the mainstream centre-right, left, and centrist groups are poised to retain control, the growing influence of nationalist and conservative forces introduces new complexities in coalition-building and policy-making. The election outcomes will not only shape legislative priorities but also determine leadership roles within the EU’s institutions. Observers should watch closely how traditional parties navigate these shifts, balancing between maintaining stability and accommodating emerging political realities.