The energy — and risk — of abortion for Democrats in 2024: From the Politics Desk

Welcome to the updated version ofFrom the Politics Deskan evening newsletter that brings you the NBC News Politics team’s most recent reporting and analysis from the campaign trail, the White House and Capitol Hill.

In today’s edition, senior politics editor Mark Murray breaks down recent polling that shows the limits of abortion as a political issue for Democrats. Plus, national political reporter Bridget Bowman reports on how pro-Israel groups are engaging in GOP primaries. And the prosecution rests in Donald Trump’s trial.

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Recent polls reveal abortion’s influence — and limitations — as a 2024 issue

By Mark Murray

The issue of abortion remains a powerful motivator for Democrats in the election, with 60% of voters disapproving of overturning Roe v. Wade and supporting abortion rights in most circumstances.

However, the issue also has limits — no less than in the context of the showdown between President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump.

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That’s the takeaway from a pair of recent CBS News/YouGov polls of Arizona and Florida where abortion has been a significant dynamic since Roe v. Wade was overturned. In Florida, a six-week abortion ban has gone into effect, whereas the state also has a measure on the ballot in November to enshrine abortion rights in the state constitution. And in Arizona, the governor signed legislation repealing the state’s 1864 abortion ban. The state is also expected to have an abortion rights amendment on the ballot.

The actual news for Democrats: Nearly two-thirds of voters in every state consider abortion should be legal in all or most cases, and a slim majority say abortion will be a major factor in their votes.

In addition, 6 in 10 voters would support a state amendment establishing a constitutional right to abortion in every state.

That’s the particular power of abortion. However, other findings in the polls point to the limits of that power.

While slim majorities in every state say abortion will be a major factor in their votes, that’s down considerably from the 8 in 10 voters who say that about the economy and inflation, as well as the 7 in 10 who say it about the state of democracy.

And this might be the most well-known finding about abortion opinions in the poll: Half of voters say Trump deserves neither credit nor blame for overturning Roe v. Wade.

That compares to about 10% to 15% of voters who give Trump credit and roughly 35% to 40% who blame him in these states.

So while Democrats and the Biden campaign have attacked Trump for being personally responsible for the Supreme Court overturning Roe — along with his three appointments to the court — a large share of voters in Arizona and Florida don’t accept that argument.

At least not yet.

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Pro-Israel groups ramp up spending against Republicans

By Bridget Bowman

Divisions over Israel hang in most cases drawn birth air groups supportive of the country into contentious Democratic primaries. However this 365 days, as Israel’s war with Hamas rages on, these groups are increasingly extra taking aim at Republicans.

United Democracy Mission, a super PAC tied to the American Israel Public Affairs Committee, didn’t engage in any GOP primaries in the last election cycle. This time around, it has targeted three Republicans running for Congress.

The Republican Jewish Coalition has also intervened in two GOP primaries to this point, with potentially extra to come. The coalition has done in Republican contests in the previous however is partaking in extra races this 365 days.

Some Republicans are embracing a more isolationist foreign policy, echoing former President Donald Trump’s “America first” mantra and calling for a focus on issues at home rather than abroad. And others have opposed sending more aid to Israel.

Kentucky’s 4th District: UDP is airing ads against Rep. Thomas Massie, who faces two main challengers Tuesday. However the community said it’s more focused on weakening Massie if he chooses to seek higher office — such as Mitch McConnell’s Senate seat — down the road rather than defeating him in the primary in his conservative district.

Texas’ twenty third District: UDP and RJC are also targeting gun rights activist Brandon Herrera, who is challenging Rep. Tony Gonzales in next week’s GOP runoff. The groups have highlighted Herrera’s past comments making light of former suicides and Nazi Germany.

Virginia’s fifth District: RJC urged state Sen. John McGuire, who is challenging House Freedom Caucus Chairman Bob Good, on the other hand it has not yet announced any spending ahead of the June 18 primary election.

Indiana’s eighth District: The two groups spent a combined $3 million against former Rep. John Hostettler, who lost his GOP primary this month. Hostettler had opposed a resolution supporting Israel in its conflict with the Palestinians in October 2000.

Read extra →

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Prosecutors rested their case against Donald Trump in dramatic day of testimony

By Adam Reiss, Jillian Frankel and Dareh Gregorian

Prosecutors rested their case against Trump on Monday after another dramatic day of testimony from his former criminal lawyer Michael Cohen, while the judge presiding over the trial rebuked one of the former president’s witnesses for disrespectful conduct.

Say Decide Juan Merchan temporarily booted the general public from the Recent York City court docket after he scolded defense criminal skilled Robert Costello birth air the presence of the jury. Costello had visibly and audibly reacted to the prosecution’s objections and Merchan’s rulings.

Costello is a former New York criminal defense lawyer who represented Rudy Giuliani and whom Cohen had mentioned considering hiring at one point. Cohen never retained him, and the pair have since trashed each other publicly.

Costello was as soon as the 2nd defense peek called by Trump, following testimony from a paralegal in defense criminal skilled Todd Blanche’s place of enterprise about Cohen’s phone recordsdata. Despite Trump’s pretrial claim he would “fully” testify in the case, it seems unlikely he’ll take hang of the stand.

Cohen finished his testimony in dramatic fashion, as well — he admitted he conned Trump and his company out of money while also affirming Trump signed off on the hush money payment at the heart of the trial.

At the start of court Monday, Merchan announced that closing arguments, which he had tentatively scheduled to begin Tuesday, might be pushed back a week because of the holiday weekend. They’re now tentatively scheduled for May 28.

Read more from the Trump trial →

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That’s all from The Politics Desk for now. Whenever you hang feedback — likes or dislikes — electronic mail us at [email protected]

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