Commercial space’s critical role in the race to outpace adversaries

The Urgency of Space Agility in a Contested Orbit

The strategic environment in space has deteriorated rapidly in recent years. Destructive weapons tests, close approaches to U.S. spacecraft, and sustained military investments by adversaries have created a pressing need for faster, more responsive space capabilities. Unlike past eras where satellite development could span decades, today’s threats require the ability to launch, replenish, and adapt systems within months or even hours. The U.S. can no longer rely on legacy acquisition models characterised by large, exquisite satellites and lengthy development cycles. Instead, the focus has shifted to resilience through proliferation — deploying numerous smaller, cheaper satellites that can withstand attrition and maintain functionality even if some are lost. This approach mirrors lessons from the Russia-Ukraine war, where distributed, rapidly replenishable systems proved vital to sustaining operations under pressure.

China’s expansion of its military satellite fleet by 500% since December 2015 has significantly enhanced its long-range strike and surveillance capabilities. Meanwhile, Russia’s November 2021 direct-ascent anti-satellite test generated thousands of pieces of orbital debris, demonstrating both the willingness to weaponise space and the risks posed to all spacefaring nations. These developments have made it clear that guaranteed access to space is no longer assured. The U.S. must now prioritise speed, adaptability, and redundancy to ensure its warfighters receive timely, secure data from orbit — regardless of adversarial actions.

How Commercial Innovation Is Driving Defence Modernisation

Commercial space firms are uniquely positioned to address these challenges due to their agility, digital-first methodologies, and willingness to embrace risk-managed innovation. Companies like Firefly Aerospace and Millennium Space Systems have demonstrated tactically responsive launch capabilities, including a record-breaking 24-hour turnaround for the Victus Nox mission in September 2023. Similarly, Los Angeles-based startup Apex completed the design-to-launch cycle for its Aries SN1 satellite in just 12 months — a timeline unthinkable under traditional defence procurement. These achievements stem from practices such as digital engineering, which allows for virtual testing and optimisation before physical production, reducing both cost and technical risk. The Boeing 777, the first commercial aircraft designed entirely digitally, serves as a proven precedent for how such methods can streamline complex systems development.

Beyond speed, commercial innovators are strengthening supply chain resilience. By diversifying vendors, adopting common standards, and integrating cybersecurity protections, firms like Redwire and Phase Four are developing scalable solutions — such as hall effect thrusters — that reduce reliance on single points of failure. The use of commercial off-the-shelf components and advanced manufacturing techniques like 3D printing further enables rapid iteration and lower production costs. This approach not only accelerates development but also enhances the ability to replenish constellations quickly after losses, a critical factor in maintaining operational continuity during conflict.

Hybrid Architectures and the Future of National Security Space

Recognising the limits of relying solely on either legacy systems or commercial alternatives, the U.S. Department of Defence is advancing a hybrid space architecture that blends government, commercial, and allied capabilities. This model, aligned with the U.S. Space Force’s Commercial Space Strategy, seeks to combine the reliability of established DoD systems with the innovation and scalability of the private sector. By proliferating constellations through commercial partners while retaining a smaller number of larger, high-capacity government satellites, the architecture aims to achieve both resilience and mission effectiveness. The strategy ensures that no single point of failure can cripple U.S. space-based intelligence, communications, or navigation capabilities.

The Space Development Agency’s spiral development approach — often described as delivering 'blocks of capability' in iterative cycles — exemplifies this balance. Rather than waiting for perfect, all-encompassing systems, this method deploys functional upgrades rapidly and improves them over time. SpaceX’s Starlink constellation, which has evolved through multiple generations of enhanced satellites, illustrates how continuous improvement can keep pace with emerging threats. Retired U.S. Air Force Colonel Dean Bellamy, now Executive Vice President of National Security Space at Redwire, underscores that non-traditional commercial innovators bring not only speed but also fresh perspectives and lean operational models that can outperform legacy processes in dynamic environments.

Critically, the DoD is also being urged to build terrestrial resiliency by developing stockpiles of critical space components, subsystems, and systems. Unlike other domains, space currently lacks a war reserve inventory, leaving the U.S. vulnerable to sudden disruptions in launch or satellite production. Establishing such reserves would help safeguard acquisition schedules and ensure that critical capabilities remain online even amid supply chain shocks or surprise attacks.

What this means

The race for space superiority is no longer defined solely by who can build the most powerful satellite, but by who can deploy, adapt, and replenish capabilities fastest. As adversaries pursue aggressive military space programmes, the United States must leverage the speed, innovation, and resilience of its commercial space sector to maintain a decisive edge. By embracing hybrid architectures, investing in digital engineering, and fostering partnerships with agile non-traditional innovators, the U.S. can transform its posture from one of vulnerability to one of sustained agility. In an era where seconds and metres in orbit can determine strategic outcomes, commercial-driven speed is not just advantageous — it is essential for safeguarding national security and global stability.