New quantum computing controls seek to advance efforts by the US and its allies and slow adversaries’ production

Expanding Export Controls to Quantum Technologies

The U.S. Department of Commerce, through its Bureau of Industry and Security (BIS), has issued an interim final rule that extends export controls to encompass quantum computing technologies. This rule is part of a broader effort to regulate the export of advanced technologies that could pose national security threats if acquired by adversaries.

The controls apply to a coalition of more than 38 'like-minded countries,' reflecting a coordinated international approach. While the rule does not explicitly name any country, it is widely understood to target China, Russia, Iran, Belarus, and their affiliates—nations perceived as potential threats to U.S. and allied security interests.

The interim nature of the rule includes a 60-day public comment period, after which the regulation may be finalized or adjusted based on stakeholder feedback.

Scope of Technologies Under Control

The export controls cover a range of quantum computing-related items, including quantum computers themselves, associated equipment, components, materials, software, and technologies used in the development and maintenance of quantum systems. This comprehensive scope aims to prevent adversaries from accessing the foundational tools necessary to advance quantum computing capabilities.

Beyond quantum computing, the controls also target advanced semiconductor manufacturing equipment critical for producing high-performance chips. This includes Gate All-Around Field-Effect Transistor (GAAFET) technology, which is instrumental in developing chips for supercomputers and artificial intelligence applications.

Additionally, additive manufacturing technologies—such as software and equipment used to produce metal or metal alloy components—are included, reflecting their growing importance in advanced hardware fabrication.

Strategic Goals and National Security Implications

The primary objective of these export controls is to slow the military and technological advancements of adversarial nations by restricting their access to critical technologies. Alan Estevez, Under Secretary for BIS, emphasized that aligning controls among allied countries makes it significantly more difficult for adversaries to develop and deploy technologies that threaten collective security.

Philip George, an executive technical strategist, highlighted that these measures not only hinder adversaries but also promote deeper technological collaboration among allies, strengthening the collective innovation ecosystem.

The controls are part of a continuum of U.S. efforts, spanning multiple administrations, to manage the export of semiconductor and related technologies. By including quantum computing explicitly, the U.S. is addressing emerging threats posed by the next generation of computing capabilities.

Challenges in Enforcement and Global Impact

While the controls represent a significant policy step, enforcement remains a complex challenge. Past export restrictions have been circumvented, with adversaries reportedly gaining access to advanced chips despite bans. The cloud-based availability of high-performance AI hardware further complicates enforcement efforts.

James Sanders, a senior analyst at TechInsights, noted that the new rule’s focus on quantum computing itself marks a more targeted approach compared to previous broader controls on AI chips.

The regulations predominantly affect commercial and academic quantum research within the allied coalition, with China as the notable exception. However, these controls may also impact international collaborations outside the coalition, such as initiatives like the Africa Quantum Consortium, potentially limiting global quantum research cooperation.

Countries not granted automatic licensing waivers may face additional hurdles in accessing quantum technologies, which could influence the global distribution of quantum computing capabilities.

Quantum Computing and the Future of Encryption Security

One of the most pressing national security concerns driving these controls is the potential for powerful quantum computers to break current public-key encryption systems, which underpin secure internet communications worldwide. A quantum computer with sufficient qubits could theoretically decrypt data that is currently considered secure.

However, experts caution that such a breakthrough remains distant. IBM’s Condor quantum processing unit, one of the largest active quantum systems, currently operates with just over 1,100 qubits, which are still vulnerable to environmental noise and errors. Estimates suggest that a quantum computer capable of breaking encryption would require over one million 'perfect' qubits, a milestone not yet in sight.

To prepare for this eventuality, the U.S. National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) has released quantum-resistant cryptography standards. Implementing these standards across business and consumer systems is an ongoing process that will take time, underscoring the importance of proactive regulatory measures.

Balancing Innovation and Security in a Competitive Landscape

The export controls reflect a delicate balance between fostering innovation within allied nations and preventing adversaries from gaining strategic advantages. By coordinating with a broad coalition, the U.S. aims to maintain technological leadership while mitigating risks posed by emerging quantum technologies.

At the same time, the controls highlight the challenges of regulating rapidly evolving fields where commercial, academic, and military interests intersect. Ensuring that export controls do not unduly hinder legitimate research and collaboration among allies is a key consideration.

As quantum computing continues to develop, ongoing dialogue among policymakers, industry stakeholders, and international partners will be essential to refine regulatory frameworks and enforcement mechanisms.

What this means

The newly implemented export controls on quantum computing and related advanced technologies represent a strategic effort by the U.S. and its allies to safeguard national security in an era of rapid technological change. By coordinating regulations across a broad coalition, these measures aim to slow adversarial advancements while fostering trusted collaboration among friendly nations. Although challenges in enforcement and global cooperation remain, the controls underscore the critical importance of managing emerging quantum technologies responsibly. As quantum computing continues to evolve, sustained vigilance, adaptive policies, and international partnerships will be vital to ensuring that innovation benefits security and prosperity without empowering potential threats.