The provincial byelection in Milton happens Thursday. (Clara Pasieka/CBC)
For Premier Doug Ford, there is more at stake in Thursday’s provincial byelection in Milton than just one seat at Queen’s Park.
While a byelection win or loss might not change the balance of any party in the majority-PC Legislature, the results in Milton will reveal to Ford, his opponents and all their political organizers much about the challenges they are likely to face in the run-up to the next provincial election campaign two years from now.
“Normally I would say that it is most likely you can’t read too much into byelections,” said Andrew Perez, a Liberal strategist, in an interview. “In this case, I believe this byelection in Milton is important.”
Andrew Brander, a Conservative strategist, says the vote comes at an important time for the Ford government.
“The reason I believe [the byelection] matters is that Milton is a distinctive microcosm of the GTA,” said Brander, who managed three successful federal campaigns for former Conservative MP Lisa Raitt.
Listed below are 5 reasons why you should hear what happens in Milton, even if you do not live there.
Politics tamfitronics 1. It’s miles the 905
The path to power in Ontario runs through the 905, comprising the regions of Halton, Peel, York and Durham. For the last eight consecutive provincial elections, the party that won the most seats in this part of the Greater Toronto Area formed government.
The PC dominance in the 905 was one of the key factors in the 2022 election. Ford’s party won 28 of its 29 ridings, with the NDP’s victory in Oshawa as the sole exception.
Both politically and mathematically, it would be nearly impossible for any party to defeat the PCs in the next election (scheduled for June 2026) without taking a significant number of these seats.
The effects currently in Milton is seemingly to be viewed as a pattern of how 905 voters are feeling halfway thru Ford’s 2nd interval of time as premier.
Polling suggests the Liberals are competitive in Milton and Perez says voter sentiment in neighbouring ridings is seemingly similar. “I believe that is promising for our party,” he said.
For the Official Opposition New Democrats, who have long struggled to gain ground anywhere in the 905 outside of Brampton and Oshawa, the results will send a message to Marit Stiles’s party about how much further it needs to go to have a reasonable shot at forming government.
Approximately 98,000 people are eligible to vote in the Milton byelection. (Mehrdad Nazarahari/CBC)
Politics 2. It’s a problem for Doug Ford
The byelection was forced by Ford’s former minister of red tape reduction, Parm Gill, jumping ship to become the candidate for Pierre Poilievre’s federal Conservative Party.
Milton has clearly been on Ford’s mind lately. He held a news conference in the area in mid-April to announce expanded GO Transit service. He held a news conference on Tuesday to reiterate a 2025 start date for construction of Highway 413, which would connect Milton to Vaughan.
Ford alsoopposed the Speaker’s ban on the Palestinian keffiyeh scarf in the Legislature, which some political commentators linked to the number of Muslim voters in the area.
“All of these items refer to the lengths that the premier is willing to go to cater to the voters of Milton,” said Brander.
If Ford’s party fails to hold onto the seat, Brander says that will say that will put PC MPPs from many ridings in the area concerned about their political futures, and re-evaluate whether or not they have to consider re-election in 2026.
Premier Doug Ford came to Milton during the byelection campaign to announce expanded GO Transit service across the Greater Toronto Area. (Tara Walton/The Canadian Press)
Politics 3. It’s a test for Bonnie Crombie
Thursday’s byelection in Milton (alongside with the simultaneous byelection in Lambton-Kent-Middlesex, which the PCs have held for four straight elections) is the main poll test for Bonnie Crombie since she became leader of the Ontario Liberal Party in December.
As the former mayor of Mississauga, Crombie’s presence as leader should in theory boost the Liberals’ fortunes in other areas of the 905.
The Liberals came close in Milton in 2022, losing by just four percentage points, despite the party’s poor showing provincewide under leader Steven Del Duca.
So if the party cannot win this byelection under Crombie, said Brander, “I think that is somewhat of a warning sign for the Liberals.”
The PCs have ramped up their attack ads targeting Crombie due to the byelection advertising campaign that has started, including TV spots airing during Toronto Maple Leafs playoff games.
Given the extent of the PC advertising salvo, Perez says even a closely fought loss will indicate that Crombie has given momentum to the Liberals as their current leader.
Thursday’s byelections are the first since Bonnie Crombie obtained the leadership of the Ontario Liberal Party in December. (Patrick Morrell/CBC News)
Politics tamfitronics 4. Its points resonate
Points that matter a lot to voters in the suburban, commuter-heavy riding of Milton — such as housing, the cost of living, transportation — are usually issues that voters care about in many ridings across the GTA.
“These are all issues that the premier and the PC caucus have been talking about very clearly,” said Brander. “If they cannot hold on to a riding like Milton where these issues are supposed to resonate so effectively, then that has to be quite concerning for the premier.”
The hyper-local issue that has generated the most debate throughout the byelection is a proposed quarry near Campbellville, in the northwest corner of Milton. There’s always the chance for such an issue to sway enough voters to change the outcome in a close race.
Milton has been a swing riding in the last three elections, with the PCs winning it in 2018 and 2022, while the Liberals took its predecessor riding of Halton when Kathleen Wynne led the party to victory in 2014.
Motorway 413 would cut across the northwestern segment of the GTA from Motorway 400, seen here, to Motorway 401 in Milton. (Patrick Morrell/CBC News)
Politics 5. It might present a trend
The PCs haven’t obtained any of the four Ontario byelections held attributable to the birthday party romped to its 2nd majority in 2022.
Admittedly, three of these seats were previously held by other parties. However, the loss of Kanata-Carleton in July’s Kanata-Carleton byelection, a seat vacated by former cabinet minister Merrilee Fullerton — coupled that same day with the failure of former Toronto city councillor Gary Crawford to win Scarborough-Guildwood from the Liberals — stung Ford’s party.
The shortcoming of 1 other outmoded cupboard minister’s seat in Milton might initiate to gape love a disappointing vogue for the Tories.
Both Brander and Perez predict Thursday’s race will be close, and say every party’s ability to get voters to the polls could make a difference, given the low turnout that by-elections often see.
The candidates in Milton for the four parties with seats in the legislature are:
Zee Hamid (PC)
Kyle Hutton (Green)
Galen Naidoo Harris (Liberal)
Edie Strachan (NDP)
Polling stations are open from 9 a.m. to 9 p.m.
Politics tamfitronics ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Mike Crawley covers provincial affairs in Ontario for CBC News. He started his career as a newspaper reporter in B.C., filed stories from 19 countries in Africa as a freelance journalist, then joined the CBC in 2005. Mike was born and raised in Saint John, N.B.
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