Who’s Jacob Zuma, the phenomenal South African president disqualified from next week’s election?

Jacob Zuma: From Liberation Fighter to National Leader

Jacob Zuma’s political career spans decades, rooted in his role as a senior leader within the African National Congress during South Africa’s struggle against apartheid. As an intelligence chief for the ANC, Zuma was deeply involved in the liberation movement and played a key role in managing political dynamics, particularly in the KwaZulu-Natal province, a region that remains a stronghold of his support.

Despite not being Nelson Mandela’s preferred successor, Zuma earned Mandela’s trust to help quell political violence in KwaZulu-Natal ahead of the historic 1994 elections. His influence grew steadily, culminating in his appointment as deputy president of South Africa in 1999 after becoming deputy leader of the ANC in 1997.

The Rise to Presidency Amid Controversy

Zuma’s ascent to the presidency was fraught with challenges. In 2005, he was acquitted of rape charges, a case that drew significant public attention. The previous year, he had been dismissed as deputy president following corruption allegations linked to a controversial arms deal, which involved accusations that bribes were solicited on his behalf.

Claiming political persecution, Zuma launched a vigorous campaign that capitalized on dissatisfaction with then-President Thabo Mbeki, who was seen by many as aloof and autocratic. This campaign propelled Zuma to the ANC presidency in 2007 and subsequently to the national presidency in 2009 after corruption charges against him were controversially dropped.

Presidency Marked by Corruption Allegations and Decline

Zuma’s tenure as president was overshadowed by allegations of corruption and undue influence, particularly involving the Gupta family, close associates accused of manipulating government appointments for personal gain. These scandals eroded public trust and political support, eventually prompting the ANC to pressure Zuma into resigning in 2018.

A judicial inquiry revealed extensive evidence of corruption during his administration. In 2021, Zuma was convicted and sentenced to 15 months in prison for contempt of court after refusing to testify at the inquiry. This conviction has had lasting legal and political consequences, including his recent disqualification from the upcoming election.

Zuma’s Political Resurgence and New Party

Despite his legal troubles and falling out with the ANC, Zuma made a surprising political comeback in December, publicly denouncing the ANC and launching his own political party, the uMkhonto weSizwe Party. The party’s name references the ANC’s former armed wing, symbolizing a direct challenge to the ANC’s legacy.

Zuma’s new party is campaigning actively, with Zuma himself delivering speeches across the country. However, the ANC has filed a legal challenge to prevent the party from using the name and emblem associated with the ANC’s military wing, underscoring the bitter rivalry between Zuma and his former party.

Legal Grounds for Zuma’s Disqualification

Zuma’s disqualification from standing as a parliamentary candidate stems from his 2021 conviction for contempt of court. The Constitutional Court ruled that a constitutional provision barring individuals sentenced to more than 12 months in prison without the option of a fine from holding public office applies to Zuma.

This means Zuma is barred from contesting elections for five years following the completion of his sentence. While he cannot stand as a candidate, his party remains on the ballot and could still influence the election outcome, particularly given the ANC’s current vulnerabilities.

Implications for the ANC and South Africa’s Political Future

The ANC, which has governed South Africa since the end of apartheid in 1994, faces its most significant electoral challenge in decades. Polls suggest the party may receive less than 50% of the vote in the upcoming election, risking the loss of its parliamentary majority for the first time since coming to power.

Zuma’s new party, despite his disqualification, could siphon votes from the ANC, further weakening the ruling party’s dominance. This fragmentation could lead to coalition governments or increased political instability, marking a major shift in South Africa’s post-apartheid political landscape.

Zuma’s return also reflects deep divisions within the ANC and broader dissatisfaction among segments of the electorate, signaling a period of uncertainty and potential realignment in South African politics.

What this means

Jacob Zuma’s disqualification from the upcoming South African election marks a significant moment in the country’s political evolution. While barred from standing as a candidate, Zuma’s influence persists through his new party, which threatens to erode the ANC’s longstanding dominance. The ruling party’s potential loss of a parliamentary majority could usher in a new era of coalition politics and heightened political competition. For South Africans, the election represents more than a routine vote—it is a critical test of the nation’s democratic resilience and the ability of its political institutions to navigate change amid lingering divisions and challenges.