We watched 150 campaign ads. Here’s what we learned: From the Politics Desk

September 6, 2024

Politics tamfitronics

Welcome to the online version ofFrom the Politics Deskan evening newsletter that brings you the NBC News Politics team’s latest reporting and analysis from the campaign trail, the White House and Capitol Hill.

In today’s edition, national political reporter Bridget Bowman breaks down what the post-Labor Day flood of House ads tell us about the broader political environment. Plus, chief political analyst Chuck Todd examines how Kamala Harris and Donald Trump are trying to portray each other as the incumbent in the 2024 race.

Sign up to receive this newsletter in your inbox every weekday here.

3 key 2024 trends, as told by the battle for the House

By Bridget Bowman

The presidential race has been raging for months, but many House campaigns save their resources for the final stretch before unloading their money on the issues that they most want to highlight. That’s happening right now, with a wave of new TV ads hitting battleground districts around Labor Day. And what’s happening in the House speaks volumes about the political environment that will also decide the presidential election.

Here are three big takeaways:

1. Harris and Trump are largely absent from the House campaigns right now.

An NBC News analysis of nearly 150 broadcast TV ads that aired over the last week in the 44 most competitive House districts identified by the Cook Political Report with Amy Walter found no Democratic ads name-checked Donald Trump and just four GOP ads directly referenced or showed Kamala Harris.

It’s hard to imagine that would be the case if Joe Biden hadn’t dropped out of the race.

2. Cost of living is paramount, especially among Republicans.

The high cost of living remains top of mind for voters, and the issue has been dominating House races, with nearly a quarter of ads referencing the issue. Around 40% of recent GOP ads have focused on cost of living, compared with around 16% of Democratic spots. Republicans view this issue as a salient one for the party up and down the ballot, with voters in recent polling giving Trump higher marks on the economy than Harris.

3. Democratic attacks on abortion are largely going unanswered, while GOP attacks on the border are prompting a response.

Democrats are going on offense on abortion access, echoing a key argument from the Harris campaign. Abortion was the top issue across Democratic spots, referenced in 30% of the party’s ads in the last week. Just two Republicans launched ads over the last week on those issues.

While Republicans have launched attacks on border security, more Democrats have responded to those missives, with about 20% of Democratic ads mentioning the issue. It echoes Harris’ decision to go up with a border ad within weeks of becoming the Democratic presidential candidate, after Biden didn’t run a single TV ad on the border during his 2024 campaign.

By Stephanie Perry and Marc Trussler

A new NBC News Stay Tuned Gen Z Poll, powered by SurveyMonkey, shows that Harris has opened up a lead over Trump with young voters, but is lagging behind Biden’s 2020 margins with the critical bloc.

Half of registered voters under 30 said they supported Harris, compared with 34% for Trump. One in 10 respondents said they will not vote in the presidential election, while 6% said they backed another candidate.

Harris is backed by 60% of young voters who say they’re almost certain that they will cast a ballot this fall. That figure pulls in line with the 60% of 18- to 29-year-olds won by Biden four years ago, according to NBC News exit poll results.

Gender gap: Young women said they’re going to vote for Harris by 30 points. Young men also said they favor Harris, but by only 4 points over Trump.

Education gap: Harris led Trump among college graduates (56% to 30%) and currently enrolled college students (54% to 29%). Support between the two candidates is tied at 41% among young voters without a college degree who are not currently enrolled in school.

On the issues: Three in 10 voters under 30 said inflation and cost of living is the most important problem facing the country, followed by threats to democracy (11%) and abortion (9%).

Harris and Trump try to paint each other as the incumbent

By Chuck Todd

How do you hold a change election — when the two candidates are a sitting vice president and the most recent former president?

That question may mask itself as a riddle, but who voters decide is “the incumbent” is easily the single most important question if you are trying to figure out who is going to win the 2024 election.

In short, the candidate who loses will likely be the one that a majority of swing voters view as more “incumbent-like” in their minds. And the debate next week will go a long way in establishing that, depending on how well the candidates do at painting the other as part of the current problem.

There’s an obvious reason why both campaigns are furiously trying to cast the other as the incumbent: The electorate is grumpy and has been for just about the entire 21st century.

When you step back and examine the U.S. voters’ take on whether the country is headed in the right direction or off on the wrong track, the country has basically been on the side of “wrong track” for nearly two decades — call it a massive and generation-long political recession.

And our presidential and midterm election outcomes in that time have indicated that a majority of said electorate was looking for change.

Only two national elections in this century — 2004 and 2012 — did not see a flip of one of the following three Washington power centers: the White House, which has changed partisan hands three times (2008, 2016 and 2020); the Senate four times (2002, 2006, 2014 and 2020); and the House four times (2006, 2010, 2018 and 2022).

Both candidates are and should be having a hard time making the case for change simply due to their current and former jobs.

Politics tamfitronics 🗞️ Today’s top stories

🎯 Targeting Russia: The Departments of Justice, State and Treasury announced Wednesday a joint effort to target with sanctions and criminal charges what the Biden administration says are Russian government-sponsored attempts to manipulate U.S. public opinion ahead of the November election. Read more →
👀 Shutdown watch: House Republican leaders are weighing their options after Trump pressured them to shut down the government at the end of this month if Congress doesn’t pass a proposal to establish new election rules. Read more →
❓ 2020 whiplash: Trump acknowledged during an interview with podcaster Lex Fridman that he lost the 2020 election “by a whisker,” though he later said the contest “was a fraud.” Read more →
🙅 Low energy: Industry experts are casting doubt on Trump’s vow to cut energy costs in half within 12 months of taking office. Read more →
🗣️ Trump talk: As Trump tries to win over Jewish voters, he’s made a point of attacking three of the most prominent Jewish Americans in politics and criticizing any Jew who backs Democrats as “an absolute fool” who needs “their head examined.” Read more →
📃 House Republicans vs. Walz: A House committee issued subpoenas to Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz and others over how they responded to what federal prosecutors have called the largest pandemic fraud schemes in the country. Read more →
Follow live election coverage here →