The biggest change in the polls since Biden’s exit: From the Politics Desk

Welcome to the online version ofFrom the Politics Deskan evening newsletter that brings you the NBC News Politics team’s latest reporting and analysis from the campaign trail, the White House and Capitol Hill.

In today’s edition, senior political editor Mark Murray breaks down Kamala Harris’ rise in popularity in the polls. Plus, deputy political editor Adam Wollner and correspondent Vaughn Hillyard take a look back at the volatile relationship between Donald Trump and Elon Musk ahead of their virtual discussion.

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The biggest change in the polls since Biden’s exit

By Mark Murray

Vice President Kamala Harris now leads in the all-important battlegrounds of Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, according to the latest round of New York Times/Siena College polls, though her advantage in these states is within the margin of error.

And independents have moved in Harris’ direction, the same polling shows.

But here is the biggest change of all in those polls, as well as in some other recent public surveys: Harris right now is more popular than President Joe Biden was before he ended his campaign — a dynamic that has helped reset the 2024 presidential race.

In July’s NYT/Siena poll of Pennsylvania, Biden’s popularity was well underwater among likely voters, with 39% viewing him favorably and 59% viewing him unfavorably (-20 net rating). By comparison, 45% had a favorable view of former President Donald Trump, while 52% had an unfavorable view (-7 net rating).

Harris, meanwhile, was at 42% favorable and 55% unfavorable (-13 net rating).

Now? Half of likely voters view Harris favorable and 48% view her unfavorably (+2 net rating) in Pennsylvania. That’s also the case when you combine the NYT/Siena polls in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.

In Pennsylvania, that’s a 22-point net swing in popularity from Biden to Harris and a 15-point swing for Harris over the past month.

As for Trump, his rating in Pennsylvania is now at 48% favorable and 51% unfavorable (-3 net rating). When the three battleground state polls are combined, 46% of likely voters hold a favorable view of him, while 53% hold an unfavorable one (-7 net rating). That’s right about where he was a month ago.

The big question to this big change in the popularity of the Democratic standard-bearer is whether it’s durable, or whether it’s simply a temporary honeymoon for the party after Biden’s exit.

The answer could very well end up deciding the winner of an election that’s now less than three months away.

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Trump’s event with Elon Musk spotlights their volatile relationship

By Adam Wollner and Vaughn Hillyard

Trump is set to join tech billionaire Elon Musk for a virtual discussion on X, formerly known as Twitter, at 8 p.m. ET tonight. The event will mark the latest chapter in Trump’s up-and-down relationship with both Musk and the social media company the Tesla CEO now owns.

Musk first started earning praise on the right in June 2022, around the time he was in the process of acquiring Twitter — which Trump was banned from at the time after the Jan. 6, 2021, riot at the U.S. Capitol. Musk said he had voted for a Republican for the first time, supporting Mayra Flores in a special House election in Texas.

But Musk quickly drew Trump’s ire, saying he was “leaning” toward Ron DeSantis in the 2024 GOP presidential primary. He also said that Trump was too old to be president and that he “should sail into the sunset.” Trump called Musk a “bulls— artist.”

Still, Musk reinstated Trump’s Twitter account in November 2022, though the former president — once a prolific tweeter — did not immediately return after starting his own social media platform, Truth Social. DeSantis eventually launched his presidential campaign with Musk on Twitter, but the rollout was mired with technical difficulties, much to Trump’s delight.

In the months after DeSantis dropped out of the race in January, though, Musk’s tune began to change. He met with Trump and Republican donors in March and escalated his social media posts criticizing Biden.

After Trump survived an assassination attempt last month, Musk announced he was “fully” endorsing him, and he has created a super PAC to back the former president.

That all brings us to tonight’s conversation between the two men. Ahead of the event, Trump has resumed posting on X — only the second time he has done so since Musk reserved the ban on the @realDonaldTrump account.

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That’s all from the Politics Desk for now. If you have feedback — likes or dislikes — email us at [email protected]

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