Brown-John: Trudeau Liberals following same path as Harper Conservatives

The Familiar Pattern of Political Rise and Fall

The current political climate echoes events from nearly two decades ago when Paul Martin's Liberal government fell to a non-confidence vote in late 2005. Martin was replaced by Stephen Harper's Conservatives in 2006; Harper himself lost power almost a decade later to Justin Trudeau in 2015. Now, almost nine years into Trudeau's tenure, the landscape shows similar strain, with Poilievre actively seeking to trigger an election that could end the Liberal government.

Canadians change governments with surprising frequency. Unlike systems with fixed term limits, federal politics has seen prime ministers come and go regularly, suggesting the electorate's willingness to embrace change is deeply ingrained. Governments often wear out their welcome well before any theoretical term limit would expire.

The repetition extends beyond timing to the substance of political discourse. Today's criticisms and recriminations bear a striking resemblance to those voiced during previous transitions. This familiarity is reassuring in its predictability yet concerning in its suggestion that fundamental issues remain unaddressed from one administration to the next.

Inside the Prime Minister's Office: Power Concentration

At the heart of Canada's political cycles lies a significant shift in where real power resides. As journalist Les Whittington observed in his 2015 book 'Spinning History: A Witness to Harper's Canada and 21st Century Choices,' authority has become increasingly aggregated in the office of the prime minister or premier, transforming Canada's parliamentary system into what some describe as a 'democratic autocracy' where incumbent governments last just a few years.

The Prime Minister's Office (PMO) has evolved from a supportive administrative unit into a powerful central command structure. Rather than being populated by elected parliamentarians, the PMO now consists largely of appointed loyalists and dedicated staff who may not face the same electoral accountability as Members of Parliament. Decision-making flows downward from a small inner circle rather than emerging from broader parliamentary debate and consensus.

Financial investments in the PMO reflect its growing importance. During the 2019-20 fiscal year, the PMO budget exceeded $9 million. By 2023-24, this figure had risen to over $11 million. These increases demonstrate how successive governments have chosen to strengthen the prime minister's central apparatus, potentially at the expense of traditional parliamentary institutions and elected representatives.

Harper's Downfall and Trudeau's Parallel Path

By summer 2014, Whittington noted that 'Canadians were having second thoughts about Harper,' with byelection losses signaling impending trouble. The same pattern appears to be emerging for Trudeau's Liberals, with similar sounds of dissatisfaction now emanating from various quarters. The issues that eroded Harper's support – concerns about governance style, perceptions of arrogance, and policy fatigue – bear remarkable resemblance to the challenges currently facing the Trudeau administration.

Both leaders rose to power through similar circumstances: Harper benefited from the collapse of Martin's Liberal government, while Trudeau gained office following Harper's defeat. Yet despite their different political stripes, both succumbed to similar temptations associated with concentrated power. The top-down approach characteristic of their respective PMOs has drawn criticism for sidelining elected MPs and prioritizing loyalty over parliamentary independence.

The human element of this dynamic is particularly telling. As Whittington observes, the PMOs of both Harper and Trudeau have been populated not by parliamentarians but by 'loyal, appointed and often fanatical hangers-about or shiny-shoe lickers.' This personnel composition reinforces the distance between the centre of power and the elected representatives meant to hold that power accountable, creating a governance structure that may be efficient in the short term but potentially damaging to democratic norms over time.

The Poilievre Factor and Future Implications

Pierre Poilievre's current push for a non-confidence vote raises important questions about what would happen should he succeed in replacing Trudeau as prime minister. Despite his rhetoric about 'axing the tax' and returning power to elected parliamentarians, historical patterns suggest that Poilievre would likely face similar pressures and temptations as his predecessors. The structure of the PMO and the incentives it creates may prove more influential than any individual leader's intentions.

If Poilievre were to achieve his goal of occupying the Prime Minister's Office, the odds suggest he too would find himself looking for another job within a few years. This isn't a reflection on his personal capabilities but rather an acknowledgment of the systemic forces at play in Canadian politics. The aggregation of consequential political power in the PMO appears to be a self-reinforcing pattern that persists regardless of which party holds office.

Ultimately, this cycle has real consequences for Canadians. When power concentrates in unelected or less accountable hands, the connection between government decisions and public will can weaken. Elected MPs may find their ability to represent constituents diminished, while the public's trust in democratic institutions can erode. Breaking this cycle would require deliberate efforts to redistribute power back toward Parliament and strengthen the independence of elected representatives.

What this means

The observation that Canadian politics resembles a dog chasing its own tail captures more than just a humorous analogy – it points to a genuine cyclical pattern in the country's governance. As we witness another potential transition of power unfold, the lessons from Harper's fall offer valuable insights not about the personal shortcomings of individual leaders, but about the structural tendencies within Canada's political system. The repeated aggregation of power in the Prime Minister's Office, regardless of which party occupies it, suggests that the challenges facing Trudeau's Liberals are less about specific policies or personalities and more about the inherent dynamics of concentrated authority. For Canadian democracy to evolve beyond this repetitive cycle, attention must turn not just to who holds power, but how that power is structured and exercised within the institutions of government.