Democrats hope Biden can dash the party’s special election wave: From the Politics Desk

Welcome to the latest edition ofFrom the Politics Desk, an evening newsletter that brings you the NBC News Politics team’s most up-to-date reporting and analysis from the campaign trail, the White House and Capitol Hill.

In today’s edition, national political reporter Ben Kamisar explains why Democrats’ success in special and off-year elections will not necessarily give Biden an edge. Plus, Garrett Haake, who covers the inner workings of Trump world, interviews new RNC co-chair Lara Trump.

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Democrats notch another special election win, using momentum that has eluded Biden thus far

By Ben Kamisar

Democrats are celebrating the results of another special election that drew nationwide attention — this time a nearly 25-point victory in a swingy House district in Alabama, where Republicans have faced backlash over a recent court case that put access to IVF at risk in the state.

The birthday celebration’s success there, alongside with other most recent particular and off-year elections in competitive and even red-leaning areas, suggests there is a big reservoir of enthusiasm for President Joe Biden to tap into this fall. But so far, it’s not certain if he will be able to ride the same wave of momentum as these down-ballot Democrats.

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The 81-year-old Biden remains unpopular as concerns over his age persist. At best, nationwide and swing-state polls look like a coin flip for the president, as he seeks to emphasize issues such as abortion rights that have led to Democratic gains elsewhere. Biden’s support with key segments of his coalition, namely voters of color and young voters, remains weak.

Democrats point to the scoreboard as evidence Biden is in better shape than the polls suggest. After a better-than-expected 2022 midterm election showing, the party held onto the governorship in red Kentucky last year, all while the abortion-rights supporters swept key ballot measures. More recently, Democrats won pivotal special elections for the U.S. House in New York and the state House in Pennsylvania.

But it’s difficult to draw a straight line from special and off-year elections to a presidential contest. Special elections are typically low-turnout affairs: Fewer than 6,000 votes were cast in Tuesday’s Alabama House contest. So while abortion and IVF may have been an animating factor there, it’s unclear exactly how this would play out after billions of dollars are spent on defining Biden and Donald Trump.

Moreover, as 538’s Nathaniel Rakich wrote last month, while Democrats had a string of strong special election showings in much of 2023, Republicans have generally performed better in recent months.

In addition to these election outcomes, Democrats are awaiting other polling indicators to improve for Biden. He recently embarked on a multimillion-dollar post-State of the Union marketing and travel blitz aimed at shoring up his 2020 coalition, and there are signs that Americans’ views of the economy are improving, while a similarly unpopular Trump could become the first former president to go on trial in a matter of weeks, adding further weight to his mounting legal challenges.

With more than 200 days until Election Day, regardless of what anyone says, the outlook for Biden — and for Trump — remains uncertain.

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The RNC’s response to uniting the fractured party: Biden

By Garrett Haake

With less than a month on the job as a Republican National Committee co-chair and de facto face of the national party, Lara Trump has a lot on her plate. But in our wide-ranging interview what she seemed least hesitant about was how she plans to unite a coalition of voters behind a deeply polarizing candidate in Donald Trump.

Her response? Joe Biden will make it for them.

Lara Trump’s answers to questions about outreach — to voters of colour and the hundreds and hundreds of Republicans who backed Nikki Haley and other candidates in the most important — revolved around Biden pushing, in preference to Trump pulling, them support into the MAGA tent.

Asked about appealing to Haley’s supporters, she equipped a binary change.

“The selection is Joe Biden or Donald Trump. And so whether or no longer you cherish his personality or no longer, must not delight in any regarding something else. They’re welcome to arrive support support,” Lara Trump said. “We would in point of fact like to delight in them arrive support.”

She also argued that gasoline costs, the pullback at the southern border and the U.S.’s standing on the world stage will inspire these voters to return.

When asked about increasing her sweetheart’s father’s appeal to Black voters, the area cutting into Biden’s biggest advantage in 2020 could potentially swing key states, Lara Trump appeared more open to pursuing voters where they are, but at some point in the same familiar theme.

“For those who are talking about reaching out to minority communities, these are the people often who were hardest hit by one of the major flawed policies of Joe Biden,” she said. “So we absolutely are going to be doing a lot of outreach.”

She went on to say that Trump would campaign in Atlanta, Chicago, Detroit and New York City — only two of which are in battleground states, but all of which have large Black populations.

The no-bustle-no-pull approach makes a perfect amount of sense in this ancient battle between two unpopular candidates who are really incumbents. If you can’t make yourself more popular, it’s a move to eliminate the other candidate first. Trump’s campaign and allies believe his core supporters give him a stronger foundation than Biden, who faces doubts across various factions of his party.

See the full interview here →

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That’s all from The Politics Desk for now. If you have any feedback — likes or dislikes — email us at [email protected]

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