As Democratic divisions widen on Israel, politics become treacherous for Biden

President Joe Biden’s longstanding support for Israel, seven months after a critical assault by Gaza-based Hamas terrorists, is being examined as never before.

On the left, pro-Palestinian protesters hound the president in public with cries of “Genocide Joe” and have disrupted college campuses across the United States for months amid what Mr. Biden calls a “ferocious surge” in antisemitism. After pausing a shipment of bombs to Israel, Mr. Biden has now threatened to cut some weapons deliveries altogether if the Israelis proceed with a full-scale military operation in Rafah – a threat that has horrified Democratic supporters of the Jewish state.

In political terms, the landscape for Mr. Biden — locked in a tight reelection battle with presumed Republican nominee Donald Trump — is not primarily the Israel-Hamas war itself. Polls show that the war ranks relatively low on the list of voter concerns, even among young voters, who prioritize issues such as jobs, inflation, housing, and health care.

But the news and social media have been flooded with chaotic images of campus protests — including the takeover and subsequent police clearing of a building at Columbia College. Nearly 3,000 demonstrators have been arrested across the country.

“People don’t tolerate dysfunction,” says presidential historian George Edwards, a professor emeritus at Texas A&M University.

Of all the challenges President Joe Biden faces, one stands out today as especially thorny: the war in Gaza and the United States’ role as Israel’s chief foreign backer.

President Biden’s deep support for Israel, seven months after a deadly assault by Gaza-based Hamas terrorists, is being tested like never before. After pausing a shipment of bombs to Israel,Mr. Biden has threatened to cut some weapons deliveries altogetherif the Israelis proceed with a large-scale military operation in Rafah. Residents are fleeing the southern Gaza city, seen as Hamas’ last stronghold, but some 700,000 people reportedly remain – many of them displaced Palestinians.

Mr. Biden’s threat has alarmed supporters of Israel across the U.S. political spectrum, including within a Democratic Party already divided by the war. On the left, pro-Palestinian protesters confront the president in public with chants of “Genocide Joe” and have disrupted college campuses nationwide for months amid what Mr. Biden describes as a “ferocious surge” in antisemitism.

With graduation season now in full swing and college leaders cracking down, pro-Palestinian encampments are dwindling. Over the weekend, some commencements saw protests – includinga walkout at Duke Collegeas vocally pro-Israel comic Jerry Seinfeld received an honorary degree – though reports of disruptions were few. Still, the Democratic convention this summer in Chicago could potentially be fertile ground for a resurgence of unrest.

The potential looms for a schism in U.S.-Israeli relations, if Israel launches a major invasion of Rafah and Mr. Biden follows through on cuts to military aid. Among the president’s most loyal pro-Israel Democratic allies, the frustration is palpable.

Mr. Biden “already doesn’t have strong [poll] numbers on being a strong leader, and if you appear to be giving in to protesters, you reinforce that sense of weakness – and that’s deeply problematic,” says the leader of a Jewish Democratic organization who asked to remain anonymous so he could speak candidly. “It is a major lesson on how to alienate everyone.”

In political terms, the landscape for Mr. Biden – locked in a tight reelection battle with presumed Republican nominee Donald Trump – is not primarily the Israel-Hamas war itself as a driver of votes. Polls show, without doubt, that the war ranks very low on the list of voter concerns, even among young voters who prioritize issues such as jobs, inflation, housing, and health care.

But the news and social media have been flooded with chaotic photos of campus protests — including the takeover and subsequent police clearing of a building at Columbia College. Nearly 3,000 demonstrators have been arrested across the country.

“The optics are not good; people don’t see dysfunction,” says presidential historian George Edwards, a professor emeritus at Texas A&M University. “They look for dysfunction, and don’t understand what these college students are doing – camping on campus, not studying. Keep in mind, the average voter didn’t go to college.”

Meanwhile, the Biden administration is struggling to support a key ally. In two TV interviews on Sunday, Secretary of State Antony Blinken strongly criticized Israel’s actions in Gaza, where some 35,000 people have died in the war, according to local authorities. The war began on October 7 when Hamas-led militants attacked southern Israel, killing more than 1,200 people and taking some 250 hostages.

On NBC’s “Meet the Press,” Secretary Blinken decried “a tragic loss of life of innocent civilians,” and called on Israel to devise a “credible plan” to mitigate civilian casualties before entering Rafah.

Mr. Blinken also acknowledged a Biden administration assessment to Congress on Friday that found the use of U.S.-equipped weapons in Gaza likely violated international law, but added that the evidence was incomplete.

A cease-fire and return of hostages could be the best way for Mr. Biden to silence his critics, analysts say, but negotiations have proceeded in fits and starts. And Israel’s expected assault on Rafah has cooled expressions of optimism.

Mr. Biden has faced criticism, too, for being sluggish to retort to the campus protests. He at last spoke out Could per chance per chance per chance 2 briefly White Dwelling remarks, underscoring the honest to free speech but insisting that “reveal must prevail.”

The president also delivered a lengthy address last week in the U.S. Capitol at a Holocaust remembrance ceremony, speaking emotionally about the killing of 6 million Jews during World War II – a stain on history that Mr. Biden says made him a dedicated Zionist.

That devotion has buttressed Mr. Biden’s steadfast support for Israel since the Oct. 7 attack – which many call that nation’s 9/11 – while his relationship with the Jewish state, under conservative Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, exhibits ongoing strain.

For American Jewish leaders, it’s also a time of immense stress amid spiking antisemitism and anti-Israel sentiment. They say expressing support for the Jewish people isn’t easy at all.

“That’s what the president realizes,” says Ted Deutch, CEO of the nonpartisan American Jewish Committee (AJC) and a former Democratic member of Congress. “He realizes that it’s no longer simple to acknowledge the anguish and dismay that the community is feeling.”

Most of the protesters, especially on college campuses, Mr. Deutch says, are marching “not in support of peace but in support of the terrorists who committed atrocities on 10/7.” Based entirely on AJC data, he says, nearly half of American Jews have changed their behavior in order not to be identifiably Jewish.

Still, divisions within the Democratic Party over the handling of Gaza – personified on the left by Senator Bernie Sanders of Vermont, who is Jewish – have complicated matters for Mr. Biden, especially in an election year.

Senator Sanders has made headlines suggesting Gaza could be “Biden’s Vietnam,” an unfavorable comparison to the election of 1968, when President Lyndon Johnson decided not to run for reelection, burdening his successor, Vice President Hubert Humphrey, with an unpopular war. Republican Richard Nixon narrowly defeated him.

On “Meet the Press” on Sunday, Mr. Sanders doubled down on the Vietnam comparison, saying, “I think many of us are very disappointed. … It’s hurting [Mr. Biden] politically.” Still, the Vermont senator noted that he remains “strongly supporting” the president on domestic issues.

Conservative political analyst Henry Olsen sees in Mr. Biden’s handling of the war in Gaza a longstanding tendency to aim for the “center” of his party, wherever that may be at the time.

“He’s doing what he’s done throughout his career, which is to look at both sides within a Democratic Party divide and take a note to reach the center,” says Mr. Olsen, a senior fellow at the Ethics and Public Policy Center in Washington.

“To that extent, he’s not alienating anyone,” he continues. “But he’s not driving anyone irrevocably away, either – and that may well be the best he can hope for.”