Conflict between Iran and Israel has recently seen a significant escalation

The conflict between Iran and Israel has recently seen a significant escalation, with a 12-day period of direct military confrontation that concluded with a tentative ceasefire. While the immediate hostilities have ceased, the underlying tensions and strategic implications continue to reverberate across the Middle East.

Recent Direct Conflict and Ceasefire:

In mid-June 2025, Israel launched a series of “Operation Rising Lion” airstrikes against Iranian military assets and nuclear sites. Israel asserted that these strikes were necessary to prevent Iran from developing a nuclear weapon, a claim they have made for years. The US joined the strikes, targeting three Iranian nuclear facilities, including the deeply buried Fordow plant. This marked a direct entry of the US into the conflict.

Iran retaliated with barrages of ballistic missiles and explosive drones targeting Israeli cities, including Tel Aviv and the Gush Dan region, and also struck the US Al-Udeid airbase in Qatar. While most Iranian missiles were intercepted, some did cause damage and casualties.

A ceasefire was ultimately announced on June 23, with US President Donald Trump claiming Israel had agreed to terms for a 60-day ceasefire. This agreement followed intense diplomatic efforts, including face-to-face talks between Iran’s foreign minister and European diplomats in Geneva.

Casualties and Damage Assessment:

The conflict resulted in significant casualties on the Iranian side. Official Iranian media reported 935 deaths, including 38 children and 132 women. However, the US-based Human Rights Activists group reported a higher toll of 1,190, with 436 civilians and 435 military personnel among the deceased. Israel claimed to have killed around 30 Iranian commanders and 11 nuclear scientists.

The extent of the damage to Iran’s nuclear program remains a subject of debate. While President Trump initially claimed Iran’s nuclear program was “obliterated,” and CIA Director John Ratcliffe stated it was set back for years, the head of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), Rafael Grossi, confirmed “very, very, very considerable” damage but noted that “some is still standing.” Satellite images have shown Iranian officials assessing damage at sites like Fordow. Iran’s Foreign Ministry spokesman also conceded that their nuclear installations were “badly damaged.”

Strategic Implications and Shifting Dynamics:

The 12-day conflict has highlighted several key strategic points:

• Israeli Aerial Dominance: Israeli jets were reportedly able to fly through Syrian and Iraqi airspace to reach Iran, indicating a potential strategic realignment in the region and increased Israeli military leverage.
• Iran’s Resilience and Deterrence: Despite the heavy strikes, Iran demonstrated its ability to retaliate with missile attacks on Israeli targets and even a US base, aimed at showcasing its deterrence capabilities.
• Unresolved Nuclear Tensions: The ceasefire did not resolve the core issue of Iran’s nuclear program. While the US is reportedly open to easing tensions through talks and economic offers, Iran’s president has ordered a suspension of cooperation with the IAEA, citing the recent attacks as justification. This further complicates international oversight of its nuclear activities.
• Strengthened Iranian Nationalism: Instead of weakening the Iranian government, the attacks appear to have fueled nationalist sentiment, with many Iranians mobilizing in defense of the country.
• Gulf States’ Neutrality: Saudi Arabia and other Gulf states adopted a public posture of neutrality during the conflict, reportedly denying the US use of their military bases for strikes against Iran. This reflects their desire to avoid entanglement in conflicts that could disrupt their economic reforms and highlights a shift towards more pragmatic relations with Iran, as seen in the Chinese-brokered agreement between Riyadh and Tehran in 2023.
• Limited Role of China and Russia: Despite their historical ties to Iran, both China and Russia have largely remained on the sidelines, with their influence in de-escalating the conflict appearing minimal. This has led some analysts to suggest that US influence in the region may be more durable than previously thought.

Ongoing Concerns and Future Outlook:

While the ceasefire is a welcome development, fears of future conflict persist, particularly concerning Iran’s nuclear program. The Israeli Prime Minister’s objective of eliminating the current Iranian government and destabilizing its nuclear sites was reportedly not fully achieved, with some analysts calling it a “failed gamble.”

The situation remains perilous. Diplomacy continues, with Iran expressing willingness to negotiate while also asserting its commitment to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) despite suspending cooperation with the IAEA. The next few weeks are seen as a critical window for de-escalation, dialogue, and diplomatic solutions, though significant challenges remain in bridging the gaps between the opposing sides.